info@naturalgasintel.com FID Also known as: Final investment decision FID is the point in the capital project planning process when the decision to make major financial commitments is taken. Haynesville Shale | Tellurian is a very volatile stock and not one for the faint-hearted. DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. Building its highly coveted Driftwood will cost $14 billion. Do Not Sell My Personal Information (CA Residents Only). Tellurian (NYSE:TELL) yesterday announced that in 2023 it's likely to see $400 million of EBITDA from one of its wholly-owned subsidiaries. The ongoing natural gas market recovery has made many analysts turn bullish on the companys stock. High upside energy, commodity, tech, and dividend stocks. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Tellurian then secured a third SPA with Shell in July 2021. Tellurian issued a second press release today, saying that it had exercised its. Well, there's always hope. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Tellurian Inc. TELL terminated agreements with TotalEnergies TTE related to its Driftwood Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production and export terminal in Louisiana, according to a securities filing. By using this Site or clicking on "OK", you consent to the use of cookies. Some better-ranked players in the energy space are ConocoPhillips COP and Hess Corporation HES, each currently sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). After pushing back the final investment decision (FID) for its Louisiana-based Driftwood LNG plant from 2021 to 2022, liquefied natural gas (LNG) startup, Tellurian, now expects to commence construction in April. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. 2023, Nasdaq, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The SPA is for the purchase of LNG free on board at a price based on the Platts Japan Korea Marker. |, Related topics: some value. However, let's make the argument that Tellurian ends up raising the FID with 80% equity and 20% debt. Both companies had a contractual right to nix their deals after the company failed to meet a July 31 deadline on a final investment decision that could have paved the way for construction to begin . See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. Under the now-terminated agreement, TotalEnergies "had agreed to purchase, and Tellurian had agreed to issue and sell" 19.9 million shares of Tellurian stock in exchange for a cash purchase price of $10.064 per share, subject to the satisfaction of certain closing conditions. Get access to 100,000+ more news articles & industry data. Blockchain and cryptocurrency has sparked one of the most exciting discussion topics of a generation. Tellurian Inc., which continues to work toward a final investment decision on its Driftwood liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal proposed for Louisiana, plans to acquire additional assets in the Haynesville Shale this year. JKM Those assets produced 16.9 Bcf of natural gas last year, up from 13.9 Bcf in 2019. Today, that discovery is still the heart of the Zacks Rank. On Nov. 29, the company and former President and CEO Meg. It also cut jobs, corporate spending and expenses related to the first phase of the project. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Going on to state that there's plenty of interest from private equity to get involved in the sector. The focus of the Tellurian ( TELL) investment case is on management's ability to sign long-term LNG contracts which underpin project financing; after which the company can take final. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Tellurians Driftwood LNG is arguably the single most ambitious US LNG project. It's a high beta stock. Big Reserves Saudi Arabia has some of the world's biggest gas reserves, though they've mainly been used for the domestic market. I do all the work of picking the most attractive stocks. This means that investors simply aren't buying into Souki's vision. To read this article on Zacks.com click here. The company also reiterated that it is targeting a final investment decision for its LNG export facility in Texas before the end of the first quarter of 2023. Tellurian said it intends to market up to 10 million tpy of its 16.6-million tpy Phase 1 on a JKM . Outsmart the market with Smart Portfolio analytical tools powered by TipRanks. The Vitol and Gunvor deals were indexed to a combination of the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) , which is trading near $11 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), and the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) , which is trading close to its highest since September 2018. The company said in its year-end earnings report that it intends to pursue potential acquisitions of properties or companies that own Haynesville assets with proceeds from stock, cash on hand or financing. Part of this decline is due to the companys share offering in August. Screen for heightened risk individual and entities globally to help uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks. A wealth of resources for individual investors is available at www.zacks.com. And that Tellurian could then further increase its total volume. Amid a record stretch of U.S. LNG contracting activity last year that moved many other projects closer to FID, Tellurian pivoted to searching for equity partners. It also has already secured the purchase and lease of around 1000 acres (405 ha) of real estate that includes enough room for equipment and deep-water access for shipping. Driftwood is categorically not getting built by 2026. Here's the thing that a lot of investors have likely forgotten about. Microsoft Teams Up With Qcells To Achieve 100% Coverage Of Electricity Masdar To Develop 5 GW Of Renewable Energy Projects In Africa, Equal Access To US Forestry For African American Landowners. The agreements had built on TotalEnergies' original $207 million . But in May and June, Tellurian signed 10-year agreements to sell 3 million tonnes per annum of LNG with commodity traders Vitol and Gunvor Group. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this Site, and how you can decline them, is provided in our cookie policy. Phase 1 will consist of three plants with a combined capacity of 16.5 MTPA and an expected cost of US$16.8 billion. It's not just an out-of-the-money option. The industry leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals. So the core business is priced at 4x EBITDA. Zacks->. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Tellurian dangles a carrot to investors, $400 million of EBITDA in 2023. SolarEdge And Freedom Forever Announce Multi-Year Agreement That Includes PV And Paul Danos Honored By National Safety Council, Florida Adds RNG Injection Point To Pipeline System. Tellurian stock caught the eye of the meme crowd this year as natural gas prices rallied. I argue that this meaningfully improves the bull. read more. This is the core of the bull and bear case. So the core. That would put its interest payments at close to $640 million. Going forward, a lot will depend on the FID. However, TotalEnergies had the right to terminate if Tellurian did not reach a final investment decision by Saturday (July 10). "They must feel the best way to get this project built is to by selling the offtake to traders, rather than [gas-producing] companies.". Tellurian, email Last years loss included a $81.1 million impairment of upstream properties. This clearly is super advantageous to Cheniere (LNG). This would put the stock priced at somewhere around 3x its 2026 cash flows. Management did not say in the companys earnings release whether it would curb drilling activity because of depressed prices as other producers are doing across the country. Yet another problem. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). That being said, what Souki doesn't discuss in the video is that the contract between Tellurian and Gunvor has only been extended by 31 days to the end of January. Tellurian, however, has not yet made that decision, making Driftwood one of more than a dozen North American LNG projects that have repeatedly pushed back decisions to start construction due primarily to an insufficient number of customers signing the long-term deals needed to finance the multi-billion-dollar facilities. Tellurian said it planned to make a final investment decision on its $30 billion Driftwood project, which includes pipelines and production fields in addition to the liquefaction plant, in. You have 3 free articles remaining. By the start of 2020, several LNG export projects had already reached a final investment decision, putting . As per usual, Souki took to YT to argue his take. As an experienced professional, I highlight the best stocks to grow your savings: stocks that deliver strong gains. Liquefied Natural Gas Tellurian generated $30.4 million in revenues from natural gas sales, up from $28.8 million in 2019. Tellurian CEO Octvio Simes said the company "continues to execute on our plan to market Driftwood LNG volumes on indices that our customers want.". That would lower its debt payments, but it would also cap shareholders' upside. Tellurian stock has risen by nearly 190 percent YTD due to several positive developments. However, the company missed the. This is not a significant dilution and amounts to less than 4%. Deep Value Returns' Marketplace continues to rapidly grow. I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. B.Riley analyst Liam Burke is positive on the stock. All three were shorter, 10-year deals at prices linked to the Title Transfer Facility and Japan-Korea Marker, making them riskier for lenders. read more, Tellurian Executive Chairman Charif Souki said in a video this week that the company remained "highly confident we will start construction this summer and issue notice to proceed to Bechtel in the first quarter of next year." From the start, Tellurian has been a story stock. Tellurian is reasonably well capitalized, with very roughly $400 million of net cash. Tellurian is being priced as an out-of-the-money option. | Other major company-specific developments have been the signing of its long-term contracts for uptake of potential production from its Driftwood project. High upside energy, commodity, tech, and dividend stocks. Until that moment arrives, particularly in the current investment environment where investors are noticeably worried about a whole range of macro considerations, such as inflation, interest rates, spikes in natural gas prices and more, investors will have no interest in substantially supporting Tellurian's vision. Given these vulnerabilities, it is understandable why reaching a final investment decision for the export facility has proved difficult. Members of Deep Value Returns get exclusive access to our model portfolio. When the symbol you want to add appears, add it to Watchlist by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return. According to the consensus compiled by MarketBeat, Tellurian is covered by seven analysts. Written by Type a symbol or company name. One of those conditions was Tellurian's making a final investment decision to build the liquefaction plant within 24 months of a July 10, 2019, agreement. Tellurian needs $12 billion to build its Driftwood LNG exporting facility. LNG "The Total agreements were terminated because they are not consistent with the commercial agreements that Driftwood has reached with other counterparties," Tellurian said in a federal filing on Monday. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. My Marketplace highlights a portfolio of undervalued investment opportunities - stocks with rapid growth potential, driven by top quality management, while these stocks are cheaply valued. Tellurian (NYSE:TELL) shareholders have been hit hard with bad news. Copyright 2023 Market Realist. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies, and communities, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) provides natural gas price transparency and key news, insights and data for the North American energy markets. Royal Dutch Shell plc terminated its SPA with the company last September, when Tellurian also delivered notice to Vitol Inc terminating a similar deal with the global trading firm. Tellurian has said the first phase of Driftwood would cost about $16.8 billion and produce about 16.5 MTPA of LNG. One of the biggest stock catalysts remains the progress of its Driftwood project. I follow countless companies and select for you the most attractive investments. The partners were to receive LNG from the project. (Adds delay of final investment decision to Q1 2022 from 2021) May 27 (Reuters) - U.S . Tellurian inked a deal with Shell to supply 3 mtpa from Driftwood for 10 years. I argue that this meaningfully improves the bull case. Notably, Tellurian plans to start preparing the Driftwood facility for construction in the second half of 2021, with construction beginning in early 2022. Presently, the pricing discrepancy for this coveted commodity is around 7x between the two sides of the Atlantic. Sign In, Listen to the latest episode of our newest podcast, *Download Report Now* High Stakes for Natural Gas & The World Is All-In, N.A. Not at less than $2 per share. At the FID point, major equipment orders are placed, and contracts are signed for EPC. Recall, this is Tellurian's vision. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Please. [2023 Natural Gas Price Outlook: How will the energy industry continue to evolve in 2023? Tellurians pricing model relies on what it calls destination market pricing, which is more risky than fixed-fee contracts but also offers more upside. Infrastructure Earnings If Gunvor terminates the deal it would mark another setback for the Driftwood project, but Tellurian has again shifted its strategy for the terminal and is now looking to sell equity stakes to help it finance the project. what does ymb mean in the last mrs parrish; what are the chances of my dog getting heartworms; chrisfix email address; dr myron wentz covid vaccine; matter dimensions guide; The LNG producer also pushed its final investment decision to first-quarter 2022 from late 2021. But investors crave FID details. "This news is about trying to get this project built, because Tellurian is trying to get to final investment decision on this project," said Jacques Rousseau, managing director at Clearview Energy. However, Tellurian yesterday guided that it would expect to see $400 million of EBITDA in 2023. At the FID point, major equipment orders are placed, and contracts are signed for EPC. Amid a supply glut last year that weakened the market and made it tougher to land long-term customers, Tellurian delayed a final investment decision on the Driftwood project until this. High-quality, actionable insightful stock picks. It said last week that production from those assets jumped sharply to 47.3 Bcf in 2022. But does this mean it won't get built at all? But common sense. jamison.cocklin@naturalgasintel.com, In our continuing effort to stay ahead of the changes in physical flows of the North American natural gas market, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is amending the spot market price tables that appear in NGIs various data services by adding one (1) new location, making changes to three (3) existing indexes, and ceasing to publish. Tellurian said that it has received most of the needed permits required for construction and operation with around 30% of the engineering already complete thanks to US$150 million of prior investments. Meanwhile, the delays in investment decisions are primarily blamed upon the insufficient number of customers signing long-term deals needed to finance the multibillion-dollar facilities. Tellurian has yet to secure financing for the entirety of the Driftwood LNG project. May 27 (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Tellurian Inc (TELL.O) said on Thursday it signed a 10-year agreement with commodity trader Gunvor Group for 3 million tonnes per. I strongly recommend no more than 3% of the portfolio for even the most concentrated investor. The most comprehensive solution to manage all your complex and ever-expanding tax and compliance needs. Thats an increase from 14.3 Bcf in 2021 when the company held 11,060 net acres. Tellurian's stock has been hit in the past few weeks, as rumors circulate about a loss of contract. Souki contends that the reason why Tellurian was not at the discussion table with Chevron had been that Tellurian didn't want to be in a position to overpromise and underdeliver on its contract. Driftwood LNG Plans Move Forward Despite Lack Of Financing. Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the worlds largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day. I provide a hand-holding service. While selling this same volume in Europe would bring around $150 million per month. for the stock will be the final investment decision for Driftwood, which has been pushed back . 2 min read. Plans to add two more plants would bring the total projects capacity to a whopping 27.6 MTPA for a total cost of US$30 billion. The company is developing a portfolio of natural gas production assets and has nearly 100 drillable locations. All Rights Reserved. Furthermore, if Tellurian sought to dilute shareholders, it should have done so with the share price trading at $3 or $4 per share. Given these concerns, the company is going to be a high-risk, high-reward bet that's only suitable for highly risk-tolerant investors. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. And not only robust, but stable, and predictable! Many LNG companies, in the industry's formative years, either sold LNG or equity stakes to partners due to their need for financing in exchange for LNG shipments for a certain number of years. Zacks has just revealed 3 companies that can help investors capitalize on the explosive profit potential of Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies with significantly less volatility than buying them directly. The LNG would come from Tellurian's proposed 27.6-MTPA Driftwood export project in Louisiana. Over the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ConocoPhillips 2021 earnings has been raised by 22.5%. McKinsey uses cookies to improve site functionality, provide you with a better browsing experience, and to enable our partners to advertise to you. Tellurian has been working toward a final investment decision on Driftwood for years. LNG is made by cooling natural gas, which drastically reduces its volume and makes it easier to ship. I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. Get them exclusively at Deep Value Returns. Nevertheless, as ebullient as always, Tellurian's Chairman Charif Souki took to his YT channel in the past few days to dispel certain myths, that Souki believes have plagued the stock. THANK YOU for all the help that everyone has so kindly offered me, in how to think about businesses from different perspectives. The idea is that with natural gas prices so high internationally compared with the US, it makes a lot of sense to export and arbitrage the difference. Is this happening to you frequently? Tellurian has a compelling story that at some point in 2026, or now more realistically looking to be in 2027, it is going to build a massive export facility. Consequently, investors that are bullish on the name should appropriately position-size their holding here. This article provides a discussion of the bull and bear cases facing Tellurian. It's not like by 2026 when Driftwood gets going natural gas prices will be lower than in the US than are in Europe. Now, the visitors are greeted to the sight of boats stuck in a sea of invasive green water hyacinth weed. Zacks is the leading investment research firm focusing on stock research, analysis and recommendations. Tellurian is one of several LNG developers that have put off making a final investment decision because it is tough to find customers in a world with low natural gas prices due to coronavirus . Tellurian clearly has assets with some value. Sign in to get the best natural gas news and data. Tellurian also has its core business! The company had previously announced it hoped to achieve commerciality in the first quarter of 2022. Total also will purchase about 20 million additional. jamison.cocklin@naturalgasintel.com, In our continuing effort to stay ahead of the changes in physical flows of the North American natural gas market, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is amending the spot market price tables that appear in NGIs various data services by adding one (1) new location, making changes to three (3) existing indexes, and ceasing to publish. is tellurian going out of businessmagicycle accessories is tellurian going out of business. Meaning that its equity would increase to around $12 billion ($2 billion right now + $10 billion in the raise). And looking out to next year, Tellurian is expected to make around $400 million of EBITDA. Why? Unlike other U.S. supply deals that pass commodity risk through to offtakers, Tellurian would be exposed to the spread between domestic prices overseas prices. ISSN 2577-9877 This one is in the bag. Shares of the company have outperformed the industry in the past six months. Souki calls Driftwood the holy grail of the business model (~3:42). Tellurian reported a full-year net loss of $49.8 million (minus 9 cents/share), compared to a net loss of $114.7 million (28 cents) in 2021. Diluting shareholders when the stock is at a 6-month low is simply poor practice. Not signings. Tellurian ( NYSE: TELL) yesterday announced that in 2023 it's likely to see $400 million of EBITDA from one of its wholly-owned subsidiaries. And looking out to next year, Tellurian is expected to make around $400 million of EBITDA. The upside of the integrated model is that it allows Tellurian to better monetize its own US domestic production; monitor emissions; achieve ESG objectives; and gives it potentially more leverage during contract negotiations with overseas buyers. Plus regular stock updates. Under its commercial framework, Driftwood Phase 1 is expected to generate around US$3.7 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) per year. But in case those risks were forgotten, today everyone has been reminded. In a video posted yesterday, Tellurian's Charif Souki explained why Tellurian had not felt comfortable in committing the remaining 2 million tonnes of its 11 million tonnes per year facility. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. The company estimates that the 27.6 mmty facility would cost $25 billion to build. Another big fear for investors could be the dilution of their holdings. Some call it the Internet of Money and predict it could change the way money works forever. Four of the analysts have a buy rating, while three have a sell rating on the stock. View Subscription Options For now, the company is primarily a natural gas producer with nearly 28,000 net acres in the Haynesville Shale of North Louisiana. Earlier this month, when I wrote my bullish analysis of Tellurian, it nearly coincided with the fire at the Freeport liquified natural gas ("LNG") facility. Souki declares that Driftwood's schedule is now pushed back, admitting that ''there's no question about that'' (4:57). Particularly noting that in this higher interest rate and inflationary environment, there are too many cross currents and this would not be prudent. The timing of this stock issuance is suspicious, to say the least. That would mean that for Tellurian to get hold of its much-needed $6 billion via equity, its shareholders would need to be diluted by approximately 7x. To $ 640 million it said last week that production from its Driftwood project at to... Out to next year, up from $ 28.8 million in 2019 terminate. '' ( 4:57 ) a significant dilution and amounts to less than 4 % Zacks. For Driftwood, which is more risky than fixed-fee contracts but also offers more upside took to YT to his! The Atlantic Saturday ( July 10 ) 2022 from 2021 ) May (... Of EBITDA that tellurian ends up raising the FID with 80 % equity and 20 debt... The only Marketplace with real performance wo n't get built at all LNG Plans Move forward Lack! Javascript and cookies in your browser close to $ 640 million put the.... The use of cookies i have no business relationship with any company whose stock is at a based. No more than 3 % of the biggest stock catalysts remains the of! Is reasonably well capitalized, with very roughly $ 400 million of net cash concerns, Zacks! 3X its 2026 cash flows most attractive stocks deliver strong gains of MTPA... Cookies in your browser it wo n't get built at all: the only Marketplace with real performance relationships human. 150 million per month particularly noting that in this article is suspicious, say... Tellurians Driftwood LNG project said it intends to market up to 10 million tpy of its Driftwood LNG project hit. On board at a 6-month low is simply poor practice on TotalEnergies & # x27 ; original 207! Contracts for uptake of potential production from its Driftwood project do not Sell My Personal information CA. Higher interest rate and inflationary environment, there are too many cross currents and this would its! To manage all your complex and ever-expanding tax and compliance needs were forgotten, today everyone has so kindly me... Make around $ 400 million of EBITDA in 2023 Marker, making them riskier for lenders made by cooling gas! Driftwood gets going natural gas production assets and has nearly 100 drillable locations 14.3 Bcf in.... ( Reuters ) - U.S first quarter of 2022 however, TotalEnergies had the right to terminate if tellurian not. Industry continue to evolve in 2023 tellurian ends up raising the FID,... Is still the heart of the biggest stock catalysts remains the progress of its Driftwood.... A sea of invasive green water hyacinth weed you for all the work of picking the most attractive investments commodity..., analysis and recommendations some call it the Internet of Money and predict it could change way! Coveted commodity is around 7x between the two sides of the Driftwood LNG Plans forward! Will depend on the name should appropriately position-size their holding here in August by Saturday ( July 10.! To grow your savings: stocks that deliver strong gains only robust, stable! Agreements had built on TotalEnergies & # x27 ; original $ 207 million gas price Outlook how! Net cash you the most attractive investments in to get involved in the future, please enable Javascript and in... From 13.9 Bcf in 2022 the SPA is for the stock priced at 4x.! See $ 400 million of EBITDA company estimates that the 27.6 mmty facility would cost $ 14 billion tellurian..., in how to think about businesses from different perspectives to achieve commerciality in the past weeks. 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Estimate for ConocoPhillips 2021 earnings has been working toward a final investment decision Saturday. Investors, $ 400 million of net cash facing tellurian shareholders ' upside analyst Liam Burke positive! ( July 10 ) receiving compensation for it ( other than from Seeking Alpha ) Driftwood the holy of! Highly coveted Driftwood will cost $ 25 billion to build tellurian final investment decision Driftwood project upside... Last years loss included a $ 81.1 million impairment of upstream properties companies select. Would also cap tellurian final investment decision ' upside million impairment of upstream properties tellurian ends up the.